Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 16.542800 18.871763 21.389799 24.311892 27.606900 31.204699 35.428116
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.610692 15.632684 19.157096 23.560776 28.905180 35.170096 43.059729
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 10.885209 14.227281 18.316745 23.669875 30.471898 38.804453 49.762244
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 9.666393 13.239330 17.800157 24.018805 32.243267 42.710267 56.998842
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 8.674230 12.374638 17.274919 24.196242 33.670794 46.129441 63.687572
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 7.732072 11.453406 16.550867 23.987297 34.492147 48.722330 69.364634
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 7.084320 10.860182 16.193887 24.206398 35.850988 52.052551 76.171048
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.691211 10.585651 16.243963 24.974534 37.994521 56.554054 84.836919
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 6.077122 9.915404 15.647787 24.726275 38.608980 58.868175 90.446919
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.289538 8.900626 14.443784 23.453076 37.576618 58.670596 92.290945
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 5.029973 8.696383 14.461605 24.046644 39.401926 62.802452 100.826491
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.804858 8.525172 14.511056 24.679920 41.308893 67.138427 109.882002
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.409687 8.043300 14.034421 24.448014 41.852108 69.435868 115.968600
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.006984 7.512858 13.435652 23.967033 41.951143 71.026292 121.011934
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.735586 7.187062 13.152031 23.985491 42.859691 73.941593 128.321462
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.549550 6.998096 13.087482 24.370098 44.400682 77.962575 137.652717
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.346102 6.758033 12.911672 24.539431 45.567594 81.402277 146.163694
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.105668 6.426163 12.543286 24.331195 46.045303 83.677309 152.777580
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.945477 6.235142 12.417420 24.552071 47.293179 87.329049 161.940592
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.869366 6.203821 12.587009 25.330928 49.596314 92.938030 174.817919
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.671284 5.908249 12.228705 25.079198 49.966231 95.108889 181.635982
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.370779 5.374255 11.365702 23.788912 48.291950 93.480234 181.451323
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.302406 5.325288 11.461665 24.390460 50.271825 98.647019 194.014145